The National Association of Realtors says home sales should narrowly fluctuate narrowly with a gradual upturn. The national median existing-home price should ease by 1.3 percent to $219,100 in 2007 before rising 1.7 percent next year. The median new-home price will probably fall 2.3 percent to $240,800 this year, and then grow by 2.6 percent in 2008.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is likely to increase to 6.6 percent in the third quarter and then hover at that level through 2008.

This reinforces the fact that buying a house, whether its an investment or a home to live in, is a long-term investment. Not unlike the stock market, price declines only really matter if you are forced to sell. The value of investment properties must be weighed against the prospects for other investments, but an owner occupant has a much better chance of benefitting from homeownership as a home for this purpose must primarily be weighed against a cost without prospects for profit--renting.

Worried about housing prices declining? An article about the Chicago condo market I read this morning (on a condo-promoting web site!) made me wonder just how far down the market would go. By afternoon it had reached my inbox that if you live in Pittsburgh there was little reason to fear price drops. According to PMI, the Pittsburgh market has the least risk of declining.

PMI Mortgage Insurance ranks the nation's 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) according to the likelihood that home prices will be lower in two years. The ranking showed Texas, Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania MSAs constitute the lowest ranked group-those facing a less than 10 percent chance of lower prices.

Nine MSAs-West Palm Beach, FL, Oakland, Sacramento, and San Diego, CA, Boston and Cambridge, MA, Detroit and neighboring Warren, MI, and Cleveland, OH-saw slight year-over-year price declines.

Of course this only matters if you're trying to sell a house, and the authors point out in their press release that buying a house is a long-term investment. "If you already own, you need to take the long view and have realistic expectations about how much your property may appreciate. Building equity in a home is still a great way to build wealth over the long term."

If there could be a better choice for a show to be the first performed in the Garden Theater since closing as an x-rated movie venue, it may be possible conceive of what, but I can't imagine conceiving of how. Quantum Theater's performance of the Collected Works of Billy The Kid was superb. I also enjoyed being in the audience and seeing inside the Garden for the first time in my life (I am telling the truth!!). I had anticipated getting a bite to eat at Max's before the show, but it was getting late and if its busy in there it can be slow. So we drove to Giorgio's on Western Avenue and then back. I didn't park near the Garden, I drove back home-- just to experience for the first time walking out my front door and down to the Theater. I am used to walking downtown for a show, but today I had the opportunity to go directly West toward the bright lights. I had a friend visiting a few years ago who saw the lights down the street. I told him it was a porn theater and he said "I'll be back." He returned sooner than I thought and lamented, "it's closed. What kind of porn theater closes at nine?" We blamed it on Pittsburgh.

Just now I bit on the skin between my thumb and pointer finger and then reminded myself I had just returned from the Garden. I don't think I touched much of anything, except a plastic wine glass and the sink faucet. The sink faucet? Ugh. From the bathroom stall I heard someone say "I think this is one place it might be better not to wash your hands!" Yea, the Garden was pretty dirty. Cobwebs are in place, plaster is falling off the walls and the lights are dim as ever (as ever I imagined they were of course). The audience couldn't sit in the theater seats, to the relief of many--it wasn't built for plays anyway. A steeper seating area was built near the front and we all got to sit on folding chairs.

Sure, maybe they should have cleaned the place up first, renovated it and had a grand opening. There's something endearing about having the Garden Theater appear in the event listings almost immediately after ending its former life, however. Continuity, continuance. That's good--unusual even. I can always tell when you walk into a house that has continuity. There's a lot that's lost when you walk into a place that's been gutted and rebuilt. It just doesn't have that organic feel that one that's been lived in for fifty or a hundred or more years has. The Garden has been there for a long time, and tonight, there we were. You couldn't help but think about what had gone on in there.

It's kind of like looking at a photograph of Billy The Kid. There he is, or was, and there we were. There's some truth to every tale, but much of it is imagination. After such a long time waiting, it was wonderful tonight to walk down the street towards the lights and imagine.

On the way out I took a photo of the seats. "The good old days," someone joked.

Pittsburgh's 2002 base-year system for assessing property values has been thrown out. While the system was far from perfect, the decision is a blow to hundreds of thousands of homeowners and would-be purchasers who continue to have little idea what their taxes might be. The system may have been difficult to comprehend, but it was a system and thus provided some stability. Investments, markets and all things financial do not like instability. It has been said that companies can operate in an economically controlled environment such as the former Soviet Union or pre-1990 China, they just don't do so well when conditions are subject to change on a whim. That's not so unlike the tax system today in Allegheny County. Residents, potential residents and builders are unable to foresee for any period of time into the future what exactly their taxes will be. The system needs to be solidified as quickly as possible. Unfortunately for those desires its now the Pennsylvania State Government we're dealing with. Update: ONOROTO SAYS "No Reassessments."

BREAKING NEWS!!! Tax breaks designed to attract home builders to Downtown and 28 neighborhoods won City Council's OK yesterday.

In addition to Downtown, eligible neighborhoods for the tax break are: Allentown, Arlington, Beltzhoover, California-Kirkbride, East Allegheny, Elliott, Esplen, Fineview , Hays, Hazelwood, Homewood North, Homewood South, Homewood West, Knoxville, Larimer, Lincoln-Lemington/Belmar, Lower Lawrenceville, Manchester, Marshall-Shadeland, Mt. Oliver, Perry South/Perry Hilltop , Sheraden, Spring Garden, the Strip District, the Upper Hill District, Upper Lawrenceville, Uptown and the West End.

Reports indicate the tax breaks also apply to substantial improvements to existing properties. What that means exactly is what I'll be trying to find out.

Full Story in the Tribune-Review