Saturday, May 27, 2006

I've heard more rumors that a coffee shop could soon ad to the retail scene on East Ohio Street. A coffee shop is a step towards enhancing the viability of the housing in Deutschtown and other residential neighborhoods.

It may seem like "just a coffee shop," but such steps may be as important or more important than larger developments.

Take in point the new entertainment complex planned for the North Shore. Entertainment is not exactly what we need to boost the viability of housing. More than entertainment, urban housing needs grocery stores and drug stores and coffee shops.

Recently Trader Joe’s announced it's moving into East Liberty. It doesn’t immediately benefit North neighborhoods, but the success of these stores could send companies like these looking for other city locations. I expect our best hope is that with continued downtown residential development, we’ll see retailers like Trader Joe’s and Walgreens looking at spaces—many which already exist on the North Shore and maybe even North Side.

Still, we (North Side) really need to resell parts (Deutschtown, Mexican War Streets and North Shore) of the North Side as "DOWNTOWN" living. These neighborhoods are the remainder of downtown Allegheny, which ajoined downtown Pittsburgh until it was annexed. They should, more than a century later, be officially united with the rest of downtown Pittsburgh.

Monday, May 15, 2006

Fortune magazine and CNN recently published a list of seven real estate dead zones, five danger zones and several safe zones. The seven dead zones are some of the biggest markets that have seen the most market heat in recent times. They include Boston, Las Vegas, Miami, Washington, DC, Phoenix, Sacramento and San Diego.

The danger zones include Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco and Seattle.

What’s safe? Cleveland, Columbus, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Omaha and Pittsburgh.

What makes a market safe, dangerous or dead? Compare Pittsburgh with San Francisco and Boston. In Pittsburgh the average home price is listed at $155.3K and the fair market value is listed as $182.1K, fifteen percent undervalued. CNN gives San Francisco and Boston an overpriced rating with the average price exceeding the fair market value as much as 53 percent.

Fortune says right now the ratio of home values to incomes in the bubble zones is about 40 percent above its historical average.

The analysis says homeowners who can stay put have little to worry about. Those who bought high and have to move may have difficulty. In a separate article, the magazine tells real estate investors who have hoped to hold and flip to get out.

Of course things are different in the safe cities like Dallas, Cleveland, Omaha and Pittsburgh. The bubble never took prices into the stratosphere and homes are affordable to a far larger percentage of the population.

Will that send investors and homeowners to Pittsburgh? As far as investors are concerned, that might depend how well alternate investments like cds and stocks are performing. Where home values increase at five percent or so, a cd paying five percent is easier money. Rentals can have much higher return, but not without effort.

As for potential homeowners, I suspect the outflow from major cities may subside as prices fall, but it’s unlikely prices can fall enough to make high-priced cities much more affordable. Cities with affordable housing should continue to have some lure. Those who already own homes in high-priced markets can’t easily move without incurring losses, instead they are dependent on looking for salary increases to make up the difference.

Tuesday, May 09, 2006


You've probably heard by now that Pittsburgh was ranked among the top ten "smart" cities--meaning you can afford a pretty good life here without breaking the bank. I guess that's kind of like buying a loaded Buick instead of a Lexxus. Anyway, I was never one for fancy cars.

If you've ever thought life was too expensive where you live, you might have looked to other cities. Many people have considered quitting their jobs, retiring early, selling their condos and just high-tailing it out of San Francisco, LA or New York.

Pittsburgh, Nashville, Minneapolis and the other seven cities would seem to be smart choices; the folks who move here undoubtedly will find a good quality of life at an affordable price.

These affordable cities aren't the only place people are moving to, however. While on one hand condos are filling America's downtowns, the far exurbs are filling with new housing. Unlike the affordable cities, moving to the exurbs is not a smart choice.

Despite the lure of affordablility, most cities are losing people. In fact, the census says nearly every large metropolitan area had more people move out than move in from 2000 to 2004.

Likewise the New York Times recently anylized IRS data and found that with the single exception of Las Vegas, no city proper makes the list of substantial population gainers; "American taxpayers by and large are outward bound. But this isn't uniformly a migration to exurbs, or to traditional Sunbelt or Western destinations like Florida or Arizona.

The trails often lead north, to the lakes of Minnesota and Wisconsin; to the foothills of northern Georgia; to the forests of northern California; to the fields of northern Michigan. Cass County, Minn., 120 miles from Minneapolis, is on the list, as is Shasta County, Calif., 180 miles from San Francisco," the paper revealed.

The cost of gas not withstanding, none of these places folks are moving to made the list of "smart" choices. Live in an expensive city? Thinking about relocating? Pick up a copy of Kiplinger's Personal Finance and choose a smart city before you go.

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Millcraft industries suggested recently that bus traffic be routed off of Fifth Avenue downtown. According to a Post-Gazette article, the company believes smog from the buses, loitering in front of buildings, and traffic congestion could hinder its plans for residential and retail development on Fifth.

As someone who wakes to the sound of "12A-Downtown" I can relate to the concerns. Diesel buses in Pittsburgh are also far less tolerable than the electric buses and streetcars in San Francisco. Replacing buses with more living-friendly forms of public transportation would be a great goal. However, the desire to eliminate the "clutter" of the street is as old and damaging as ever.

The desire to bring residents to enjoy urban downtown is welcomed, but the desire to make downtown into a suburb is misguided and harmful. Also mentioned in the article is a desire to eliminate "loitering." I guess that means waiting for buses.

Let's refer here to Jane Jacobs. Just when I thought she'd won, we need her more than ever.

"Under the seeming disorder of the old city, wherever the old city is working successfully, is a marvelous order for maintaining the freedom of the city. It is a complex order. Its essence is the intricacy of sidewalk use, bringing with it a constant succession of eyes. This order is all composed of movement and change, and although it is life, not art, we may fancifully call it the art form of the city and liken it to a dance -- not to a simple-minded precision dance with everyone kicking up at the same time, twirling in unison and bowing off en masse, but to an intricate ballet in which the individual dancers and ensembles all have distinctive parts which miraculously reinforce each other and compose an orderly whole."