Monday, May 15, 2006

Fortune magazine and CNN recently published a list of seven real estate dead zones, five danger zones and several safe zones. The seven dead zones are some of the biggest markets that have seen the most market heat in recent times. They include Boston, Las Vegas, Miami, Washington, DC, Phoenix, Sacramento and San Diego.

The danger zones include Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco and Seattle.

What’s safe? Cleveland, Columbus, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Omaha and Pittsburgh.

What makes a market safe, dangerous or dead? Compare Pittsburgh with San Francisco and Boston. In Pittsburgh the average home price is listed at $155.3K and the fair market value is listed as $182.1K, fifteen percent undervalued. CNN gives San Francisco and Boston an overpriced rating with the average price exceeding the fair market value as much as 53 percent.

Fortune says right now the ratio of home values to incomes in the bubble zones is about 40 percent above its historical average.

The analysis says homeowners who can stay put have little to worry about. Those who bought high and have to move may have difficulty. In a separate article, the magazine tells real estate investors who have hoped to hold and flip to get out.

Of course things are different in the safe cities like Dallas, Cleveland, Omaha and Pittsburgh. The bubble never took prices into the stratosphere and homes are affordable to a far larger percentage of the population.

Will that send investors and homeowners to Pittsburgh? As far as investors are concerned, that might depend how well alternate investments like cds and stocks are performing. Where home values increase at five percent or so, a cd paying five percent is easier money. Rentals can have much higher return, but not without effort.

As for potential homeowners, I suspect the outflow from major cities may subside as prices fall, but it’s unlikely prices can fall enough to make high-priced cities much more affordable. Cities with affordable housing should continue to have some lure. Those who already own homes in high-priced markets can’t easily move without incurring losses, instead they are dependent on looking for salary increases to make up the difference.

No comments: